SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF INSURGENCY ACTIVITIES IN NORTH-EASTERN NIGERIA
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Date
2020-01
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UNIVERSITY OF ILORIN
Abstract
Insurgency activities have continued to ravage the Northeastern part of Nigeria since 2009. This resulted in loss of lives and properties. Despite the military intervention, the insurgencies still occur unabated in the region. The aim of the study was to examine insurgency activities in some selected Northeastern states of Nigeria. The objectives of the study were to: (i) examine the nature of insurgency activities in the study area; (ii) establish the spatio-temporal pattern of insurgency activities over the period of 2009-2017; (iii) determine the factors responsible for the insurgency activities; (iv) examine the effects of insurgency activities in the study area; and (v) classify the intensity of insurgency activities.
Data for the study were generated from both primary and secondary sources. Primary data were collected from Internal Displaced Persons (IDP) Camps through the administration of structured questionnaire and oral interviews. Secondary data were derived from security agencies’ records and insurgency data from Armed Conflicts Location and Events Data (ACLED). Purposive sampling method was adopted in the selection of IDP Camps, while random sampling technique was employed in the selection of 633 respondents. Interviews were conducted with security agencies, security personnel and IDP camp officials. The insurgency data from ACLED were used to determine the spatio-temporal changes between 2009-2017 using Geographical Information System techniques. These data were subjected to both descriptive statistics (table and graph), and inferential statistical such as Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), and hot spot analysis.
The findings of the study of the Northeastern states were that:
i. the most prominent insurgency activity in the study area were kidnapping (25.93%); suicide bombing (16.09%); and attacks on security agencies (14.15%), citizen (13.28%), and infrastructure (11.65%);
ii. the activity of insurgency indicated a statistically significant positive trend in insurgency for the period of the study with 38% occurrences per year and R-square of 58% variability in its frequency;
iii. poverty level (15.62%), presence of hideouts (15.57%), unemployment (14.61%), porous border (14.42%), low educational level (13.90%); and religious extremism (13.51%) were the factors that encouraged insurgency. Incidentally, the lack of government presence was not a major factor 13.00%;
iv. loss of lives (23.09%), displacement of people (17.51%), destruction of property (15.86%), and destruction of farm land (11.46%) were the major effects of insurgency;
v. high-high intensity of insurgency were experienced in Gwoza, Konduga, Madagali, Michika and Gujba, while the insurgency hot spot with 99% confidence level were exhibited in Maiduguri, Jere, and Mafa within the time frame of the study.
The study concluded that insurgency activity pattern can be monitored using GIS to identify and provide an understanding of the location, intensity, and trend in the selected Northeastern states of Nigeria. The study recommended that anti-kidnapping laws should be enacted in the study area; efforts should be made by the Government in reducing poverty through the
provision of enabling environment for job creation; and provision of adequate security in the study area so that it can assist in checkmating the activities of the insurgent.
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Keywords
SPATIAL ANALYSIS, INSURGENCY, INSURGENCY ACTIVITIES, NORTH-EASTERN NIGERIA