Modelling of Enugu Monthly Rainfall Using Box and Jenkins Methodology.
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Date
2018-06-01
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Publisher
Tibiscus University of Timişoara, România.
Abstract
The paper examined the rainfall distribution of Enugu state in Nigeria. Box-Jenkins methodology was used to build ARIMA model to analyze data and forecast for the period of 15 years, from January, 2002 to December, 2016 and to predict for the future. We observed that the average annual rainfall of Enugu state ranges from
124mm to 179mm. The irregularity in annual rainfall of Enugu State one and half decades ago is a bit large,
indicating that climate stability is high in the state. Different time series models were diagnostically checked,
and tested for Enugu state and at last an SARIMA (0, 0, 0)(1, 0, 1)12 model is chosen as the proposed best model. The proposed model was used to forecast two years’ monthly rainfall value for the state. The results indicated that relatively there is a tendency of increasing in trend of future rainfall values in the state.
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Keywords
Modelling, Box and Jenkins, ARIMA, Rainfall, SARIMA, Forecasting, Enugu State