Effect of Macroeconomic Indicators on Stock Market Returns in Nigeria
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Date
2018
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Department of Finance
Abstract
Stock market plays a vital role in economic prosperity by fostering capital formation and sustaining economic growth in most economies across the world. In order to develop the market, regulatory reforms aimed at opening up the market for globalization were introduced. These reforms include Indigenization policy of /977, Structural Adjustment Programme regime of 1986, Financial liberalization of /995, the deregulation and post¬deregulation eras, 10 mention but a few (NSE,2016); the expectation is that these reforms (which include some of the variables) will enhance the efficiency of the market. This study examined the effects of macroeconomic indicators on stock market performance in Nigeria. Monthly time series data were sourced from (he Central flank of Nigeria (eBN) , National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE) from 2()(}(j la 2016 for this study. The following tests were conducted: unit root, two-step eo-integration tests, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) lest and the first differential lest. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) was used in estimating the parameters of the model. The result revealed that broad money supply, Consumer price index (CI'I). exchange rate, and a month lag of prime lending rate have significant effect on stock market performance. The study concluded that macroeconomic indicators affect stock market performance in Nigeria. It was, therefore, recommended that monetary authority should effectively monitor the selected macroeconomic indicators in order 10 improve stock market returns in Nigeria.
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Keywords
Market return, volatility, macroeconomic indicators