Econometric Analysis of the Effects of Land Size on Cereals Production in Nigeria

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Islamic University Multidisciplinary Journal


This study employed the techniques of unrestricted VAR to model and analyzed the causal effects of Land used for Cereals Production (LP) on Cereals Production (CP) in Nigeria for the period of 50 years (1966 to 2016). The data extracted from the repository of World Bank were used to obtain the time plots which depicted that the CP and LP series are not stationary at level. The unit root and cointegration tests carried out suggested that the series are integrated of order one I (1) and that the series are not co-integrated. This confirmed that the use of VAR(p) model was appropriate for analyzing the data. Based on the LR, FPE and AIC selection criteria, VAR (2) model was fitted to the data. Results from the fitted model estimates showed that both CP and LP series in immediate past periods t-1 (2015) and two previous periods t-2 (2014 and 2015) have significant impacts on CP series in current time period t (2016) while only LP in immediate past period t-1 (2015) has a significant effect on LP in current time period t (2016). The results of Granger causality test indicate a unidirectional relationship which runs from LP to CP. It is recommended that the Federal Government of Nigeria should re-visit the land tenure system policies and embrace those that will enhance easy acquisition of land by farmers for more cereals production.



Cereals Production, Unrestricted VAR, Granger Causality, Cointegration