MODELING OF A CURE RATE FOR AN INFECTIOUS DISEASE WITH CO-INFECTION

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorBALOGUN, OLUWAFEMI SAMSON
dc.date.accessioned2022-03-15T12:47:12Z
dc.date.available2022-03-15T12:47:12Z
dc.date.issued2018-06
dc.description.abstractSeveral investigations nowadays allow the examination of cure fraction in the analysis for the survival function of the disease. This research is being motivated by the fact that an infectious disease with a co-infection is becoming more prominent in recent time but not much research has been done in the area of its epidemiological modeling. Consequently, the use of a survival model that incorporates the cured rate of the management in the analysis which is called cure rate model is adopted. The aim of the study is to model any infectious disease with a co-infection so as to estimate the performance of the management. The specific objectives are to: (i) derive the appropriate probability density functions for the sole infectious and co-infection disease; (ii) determine the distribution that best fits and estimate the cure rate parameter for the two situations; and (iii) examine and determine some risk factors associated with the two situations. The existing model used in literature has been the Exponential distribution. This study was extended to include two forms of the Weibull distribution to estimate the cure rate using maximum likelihood estimation method. Goodness-of-fit was presented to screen the distributions for use. Simulation and Real-life data were used for this study using R and STATA softwares in the estimation procedure. The findings of the study were: (i) the two-parameter Weibull distribution was the best fit for TB and TB-HIV co-infected patients in this situation; (ii) the cure rate of TB was 26.3% which was higher than that of the TB-HIV co-infection which was 23.1% (0.0001); (iii) the non-parametric median survival time of TB patients was 51 months while that of TB-HIV co-infected patients was 33 months; and (iv) there was no risk factor associated with TB-HIV co-infected patients while age was significantly a risk factor for TB patients among the suspected risk factors used. The study concluded that appropriate parametric model is applicable and can be used to model an infectious disease with a co-infection. The cure rate model is useful when sufficient information is available to implement it. It recommended that this work is particularly useful to estimate cure rate in Hospital setting or prevalence in cross sectional data and that since hazard increases with age from the real-life data used, early screening of people is highly encouraged. The study therefore provides information which serves as a warning signal to the entire population to intensify the fight against TB and TB-HIV co-infection.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://uilspace.unilorin.edu.ng/handle/20.500.12484/7705
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherUNIVERSITY OF ILORINen_US
dc.subjectMODELINGen_US
dc.subjectCURE RATEen_US
dc.subjectINFECTIOUS DISEASEen_US
dc.subjectCO-INFECTIONen_US
dc.subjectTB-HIVen_US
dc.subjectTBen_US
dc.titleMODELING OF A CURE RATE FOR AN INFECTIOUS DISEASE WITH CO-INFECTIONen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US

Files

Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
BALOGUN, OLUWAFEMI SAMSON THESIS.docx
Size:
594.54 KB
Format:
Microsoft Word XML
Description:
Main article
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download

Collections

Theses and Dissertation collection from the Faculty of Physical Science