Browsing by Author "Oyerinola David Sunday"

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    ECONOMIC FREEDOM AND ECONOMIC MISERY IN NIGERIA: EVIDENCE FROM A FOURIER QUANTILE ARDL APPROACH
    (Journal ofEconomic Studies (JES) Department of Economics, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Anambra State, Nigeria., 2026-03) Oyerinola David Sunday; Joseph Afolabi Ibikunle
    The paper analyses the relationship between economic freedom and economic misery in Nigeria based on an annual time series of economic data as of 1980-2024. Fourier Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag FQARDL was used. Long-run quantile process estimates and short-run impact coefficients of the entire range of variables are statistically non-significant at the lower and upper quantiles of the misery distribution; but generally, are directionally consistent with a priori expectations. The impulse response analysis however reveals that a positive shock to economic freedom creates a negative and sustained cumulative reaction in economic misery. The impact is more intense at the lower quantile showing that economic misery becomes mitigated more efficiently in times of relative macroeconomic stability. These results imply that even though economic freedom can alleviate misery in Nigeria, it is limited by poor institutions, inconsistencies in policy, and structural inflexibility. The paper thus suggests that economic liberalisation, coupled with good institutional reforms, effective monetary policy, and more diversified foreign investment policy should be adopted to enable full transmissions of the welfare gains of economic freedom to the Nigerian households.
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    MONETARY POLICY RESPONSE TO INFLATION TARGETING IN NIGERIA: EVIDENCE FROM A NONLINEAR AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG APPROACH
    (Ajayi Crowther University Journal of Social Sciences, 2025) Oyerinola David Sunday
    his study investigates the monetary policy response to inflation targeting in Nigeria over the period 1986 to 2023, using annual data from the World Bank World Development Indicators, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, and the IMF Fiscal Monitor. Nigeria operates an implicit inflation targeting framework, yet inflation has remained persistently high, raising important questions about the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission.Anchored on the New Keynesian macroeconomic framework and the Quantity Theory of Money, this study employs the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model to examine the asymmetric short-run and long-run effects of monetary policy rate adjustments on inflation. A Vector Autoregression (VAR) model with impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition is also applied to trace shock dynamics, while the Granger causality test determines the direction of causal influence. Findings reveal that monetary policy tightening exerts a stronger disinflationary effect than monetary easing exerts an inflationary effect in the long run, confirming significant asymmetry. Fiscal dominance, exchange rate pass-through, and broad money supply are identified as significant co-drivers of inflation. The error correction term is negative and significant, indicating a moderate speed of adjustment to long-run equilibrium. The findings have important implications for the design of credible inflation targeting frameworks and monetary-fiscal coordination in Nigeria.