Browsing by Author "Kareem, K. Y."

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    Modeling Effects of some Factors that Contribute to Cereals Yields in Nigeria using Toda-Yamamoto Techniques.
    (SLU Journal of Science and Technology (SLUJST). Published by the Faculty of Natural and Applied Sciences, Sule Lamido University, Kafin-Hausa, Jigawa State, 2020-03-20) Garba, M. K.; Akanni, S. B.; Yahya, W. B.; Kareem, K. Y.; Afolayan, R. B.
    In this study, we employed the techniques of Toda-Yamamoto causality test to determine the direction of causality among Cereals Production (CP), Land used for Cereals Production (LP) and Cereal Yields (CY) in Nigeria for the period of 50 years (1966 to 2016).The maximum order of integration and optimal lag order of the series confirmed that VAR (2+1) model best fitted the data. Results from the fitted model estimates revealed that two year past values t-2 (2014 and 2015) of CP is the major determinant of CP series in current time period t (2016) while one year past value t-1 (2015) of CY and two year past values t-2 (2014 and 2015) of CP and LP are major determinants of CY series in current time period t (2016).The results of Toda-Yamamoto causality test showed that CY is Granger-caused by both CP and LP.
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    Modelling of ost-COVID-19 food production index in Nigeria using Box-Jenkins methodology
    (2023) Garba Mohammed Kabir; Akanni S. B.; Kareem, K. Y.; Yusuf, A. A.; Jabaru, S. O.; Abolarin, J. S.; Amoyedo, F. E.
    Before the COVID-19 pandemic, global food security has been known to be a major threat for developed and developing countries of the world. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, global food security was expected to be at a very high risk due to lockdown across the globe. Consequently, the developing countries, most especially, were expected to experience food shortage challenges. One important way to measure the amount of food production of any country in the world is through the use of a macroeconomic variable known as Food Production Index (FPI). Therefore, this study seeks to examine the post-COVID-19 behavior of the Nigeria’s FPI using the Box-Jenkins methodology for modeling univariate time series. A low-frequency time series datasets over 56 years spanning from 1961 to 2016 on Nigerian FPI was extracted from World Bank repository. Pre-tests results from the unit root analyses, correlogram and selection criteria techniques showed that the FPI is a differenced stationary series of order one {I(1)}and that ARIMA (2, 1, 2) model best fitted the series. Besides, diagnostic checking of the fitted model confirmed that the error was white noise and forecast of 8 years (2017 to 2024) was made. Findings from the study revealed that the future values of the FPI are erratic and expected to fluctuate (i.e., rise and fall) within the predicted periods. Conclusively, the fourteen years out sample forecast of FPI for the periods 2017 to 2030 indicates that the gains of FPI in recent years is currently being affected by the current COVID-19 pandemic. The study recommends that concerted efforts to achieve optimal FPI must be focused on the improvement of inter-regional trade which will result in shorter food chains, and thereby creating more market for farmers and enhancing accessibility to both inputs and outputs.