Browsing by Author "Afolayan, R. B."

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
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    Modeling Effects of some Factors that Contribute to Cereals Yields in Nigeria using Toda-Yamamoto Techniques.
    (SLU Journal of Science and Technology (SLUJST). Published by the Faculty of Natural and Applied Sciences, Sule Lamido University, Kafin-Hausa, Jigawa State, 2020-03-20) Garba, M. K.; Akanni, S. B.; Yahya, W. B.; Kareem, K. Y.; Afolayan, R. B.
    In this study, we employed the techniques of Toda-Yamamoto causality test to determine the direction of causality among Cereals Production (CP), Land used for Cereals Production (LP) and Cereal Yields (CY) in Nigeria for the period of 50 years (1966 to 2016).The maximum order of integration and optimal lag order of the series confirmed that VAR (2+1) model best fitted the data. Results from the fitted model estimates revealed that two year past values t-2 (2014 and 2015) of CP is the major determinant of CP series in current time period t (2016) while one year past value t-1 (2015) of CY and two year past values t-2 (2014 and 2015) of CP and LP are major determinants of CY series in current time period t (2016).The results of Toda-Yamamoto causality test showed that CY is Granger-caused by both CP and LP.
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    Multivariate Time Series Analysis on the Prices of Staple Foodstuffs in Kwara State, Nigeria
    (Journal of Science, Technology and Mathematics Education (JOSTMED), Federal University of Technology, Minna, 2016-12-15) Afolayan, R. B.; Yahya, W. B.; Garba, M. K.; Adenuga, A. A.; Olatayo, T. O.
    Due to supplementary, complementary and substitute relationship between staple foodstuffs, the prices of one or more staple foodstuffs tend to influence and could be used to predict the prices of some others. This study was therefore aimed at establishing the co-movement between the prices of some major stable foodstuffs - Rice, Maize, Garri, Millet, Guinea-Corn and Beans - in Kwara State, Nigeria. Multivariate time series models were fitted to data on monthly prices of Rice, Maize, Garri, Millet, Guinea-Corn and Beans over a period of twelve years (from January 2000 to December 2012). The cointegration relations among the prices were established by applying Johansen’s cointegration tests. As a result, appropriate Vector Error Correction (VEC) model was fitted to the data. The unit root test for stationarity in the series reveals that all the series were non-stationary but they were only made to be stationary at first difference. The results from the analysis showed that there exist short term adjustments and long-term dynamics among the prices of Rice, Maize, Garri, Millet, Guinea-Corn and Beans in Nigeria over the study period. Further results showed that a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model of lag two with one cointegration equation best fits the data. The forecasting accuracy of the fitted model was determined by out-of-sample forecasts of the future prices of the selected staple foodstuffs. Suitable model’s assessment criteria such as root mean square error, mean absolute error and the like were employed to determine the efficiency of the fitted model. The data employed for the study were collected from the Kwara State office of National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria. All analyses were performed in the environment of R Statistical package.
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    On the Strength of Agreement between Initial and Final Academic performances in a Nigerian University System
    (ABACUS, Published by Mathematical Association of Nigeria, 2018) Banjoko, A. W.; Yahya, W. B; Abiodun, H. S.; Afolayan, R. B.; Garba, M.K.; Olorede, K. O.; Dauda, K.A.; Adeleke, M. O.
    This paper examines the strength of agreement between academic performances of students after their first and final years in the University. Academic performances of a total of 886 students that were admitted into various academic programs in the Faculty of Science, University of Ilorin, during the 2008/2009 academic session were followed-up to their year of graduation in 2012. Information on the grade point average (GPA) of students at the end of their first year in 2008, their final cumulative grade point average (CGPA) at the end of their studies in 2012 among others were collected. Results from this study generally showed a fair agreement between students’ initial and final academic performances in Nigeria University system (p < 0.001). It was also found that about 50% of students maintained the classes of degrees they had in their first year till graduation,about 40% of them improved on their performances while the performances of about 7% of them dropped from what they had at their firstyear.Further results showed that students’ performance is gender sensitive.Specifically, about 45% and 60% of female and male students maintained the classes of degrees they had during their first year in the University, about 50% and 30% of them improved on theirs while about 5% and 10% of them dropped from their initial academic performances at the end of their studies respectively. Finally, students in the Biological Sciences improved on their initial academic performances more than their counterparts in the Physical Sciences. Also, female students improved on their initial academic performances more than their male counterparts. This work will serve as useful counselling guide to prospective admission seekers into the Universities and all the stakeholders at enhancing students’ academic performances in the University system.