Browsing by Author "Abdoulaye, Tahirou"
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Item ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF SELECTED ECONOMIC VARIABLES ON SORGHUM PRICES IN NIGERIA(Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Przyrodniczego w Poznaniu, 2017) Ajibade, Toyin Benedict; Ayinde, Opeyemi Eyitayo; Abdoulaye, Tahirou; Ojoko, Emmanuel AdaNigeria is the world’s leading producer of sorghum intended for use as food grain. Likewise, there has been growing industrial demand for sorghum in the livestock breeding and brewery sectors. As sorghum prices have been on the increase, it becomes pertinent to identify the determinants of this development in order to nip the imminent food crisis in the bud. This study relied on time series data spanning from 1970 to 2015 retrieved from FAOSTAT and World Bank databases. Analytical methods employed include the unit root test, cointegration test and error correction mechanism. The diagnostic tests indicated the presence of autocorrelation which was subsequently adjusted with the Cochrane-Orcutt procedure. Subsequent tests indicated that variables fit well to the model. As shown by the ADF unit root test, the modeled variables were non-stationary but became stationary after first differencing. At a significance level of 5%, the sorghum price was determined by gross domestic product (GDP), annual money supply, official exchange rate and crude oil price, both in the long and short run, whereas the lagged price of sorghum also had an effect on prices in the short run. The study recommends that macroeconomic variables such as GDP, annual money supply and official exchange rate be taken cognizance of when planning the agricultural development in Nigeria.Item DETERMINANTS OF PRICE OF YAM IN NIGERIA: A TIMES-SERIES ANALYSIS(Nigerian Journal of Agricultural Economics (NJAE)., 2018) Ajibade, Toyin Benedict; Ayinde, Opeyemi Eyitayo; Abdoulaye, Tahirou; Ayinde, KayodeWith a contribution of up to 71% to world output of yam, Nigeria remains the largest producing country with rural farmers having yam as second most commonly harvested tuber crop. Given its nutritional superiority to most roots and tubers in terms of digestible proteins and minerals and its relevance as a source of income for the poor majority of rural-farmers, the importance of yam in Nigeria cannot be overemphasized. There has however been a persistent price increase in yam, as well as other food commodities, in Nigeria. This study was therefore designed to investigate the determinants of rising yam price in Nigeria over the period 1970-2015. The study relied on time-series data sourced from FAOSTAT, Federal Bureau of Statistics and CBN Bulletin. Inferential statistics including unit-root test, cointegration and error correction model were employed in analysis. Autocorrelation was present in the model hence necessitating Cochrane-Orcutt approach. Results indicated that variables were nonstationary but became stationary after first differencing. At 5% significance level, on the long run, price of yam was determined by annual production (coef.=-0.8095), GDP (coef.=-3.009) and annual money supply (coef.=0.829). It is consequently recommended that programmes and strategies implemented to boost food production in Nigeria should be carried on viz-a-viz robust economic planning that keeps the significant macroeconomic variables at optimal levels in order to maintain the balance required for stabilization in food commodity prices. Likewise, efforts should be concerted in putting insurgency in Nigeria under checks considering the ill effect it has on farming and trading activities.Item Discovery of maize price and Food crop market dynamics in Nigeria(Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 2019) Ajibade, Toyin Benedict; Ayinde, Opeyemi Eyitayo; Abdoulaye, TahirouHaving the mandate of achieving food security in Nigeria, commendable efforts have been geared towards food production in the nation. Albeit the increasing production, price volatility has continued to perpetuate in food markets in Nigeria hence attaining food affordability, a precondition for food security, remains a mirage. An innovative approach to the food challenge therefore, may be to understand the food markets dynamics such as to gain insight into how the market works. In this study we focus on maize, a very important staple in Nigeria. We seek to identify the point of price discovery and markets that significantly influence price of maize. In furtherance, we examine the dynamic relationship existing among the markets and explored the responsiveness of the markets to price signals from the other markets. Our results showed that most of the markets examined behave in such a manner expected of open market however full market integration has not been achieved. It was revealed that prices of maize are discovered from major food market in the deficit production zone. Majority of the markets were responsive to one-time price shock from itself, although exhibiting exogeneity in the contemporaneous period but becoming endogenous by the long run (whereby other markets majorly influenced prices) hence indicating that the markets had commendable informational influence on one another. The study therefore recommended installing infrastructure for linkage of production with the demand zones if price stabilization is to be achieved. Regulatory bodies should also check activities of cartels in the influential markets.Item Modelling the price of Maize and its Determinants in Nigeria: Error Correction Model Approach(Agricultural University of Tirana, 2018) Ajibade, Toyin Benedict; Ayinde, Opeyemi Eyitayo; Abdoulaye, Tahirou; Ayinde, KayodeMaize is one of the top-ranking cereals in Nigeria based on its use as staple food for the populace and also as raw material for several industries most especially in livestock feed production. Over the years, there has been volatility in maize prices evident in the fluctuation observed which is mostly of an upward trend. Rising food commodity prices, maize especially, coupled with the low income earnings of most individuals has far reaching implication on food security in Nigeria and of course welfare of many, considering maize is a major staple in the country. This study was therefore carried out to identify the determinants of maize price in Nigeria using an error correction approach. Time series data spanning 46 years (1970-2015) was used in the study. Data were secondarily sourced from FAOSTAT, CBN and NBS. Data collected were analysed using econometric tools including Unit root test, Cointegration test and Error correction mechanism. The study revealed that maize price in Nigeria responds negatively to the Gross Domestic Product and positively to Annual money supply, Official exchange rate and insurgency in the long run. Whereas in the short run, maize price is positively influenced by own export quantity, insurgency and trade liberalization while production has a negative influence on the price of maize. Some of the recommendations include the need to: take cognizance of the relevant macroeconomic variables in agricultural planning; encourage farmers to increase maize production; implement policies targeted at regulating maize export such as to ensure this is not detrimental to domestic availability; and intensify effort at tackling insurgency in order to provide producers and traders an enabling trade environment.Item Spatial Market Integration and Price Information Flow in Nigeria Markets: The case of Yam.(Faculty of Business, Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, 2019) Ajibade, Toyin Benedict; Ayinde, Oeyemi Eyitayo; Abdoulaye, TahirouPrice information cum transmission dynamics are driving factors in market integration mechanism.The role of price in transaction decisions is cogent with sustainability of agricultural activities hinged on system effectiveness.Nation targeting food security must have good grasp on functional food commodity pricing system.We designed the study to answer questions on market integration, explore existing relationship and market price responsiveness.Price collected over 52weeks from 24 markets were analysed.Markets were highly integrated however with highest prices in deficit zones. With each market generating information from others by contemporaneous periods, markets clearly had superior price information flow. Commodity association membership, linkage of traders-farm gates, active price seeking behaviours and improved Infrastructure are recommended to enhance market integration, serve price stabilization purpose and promote food affordability.