ANALYSING THE IMPACT OF SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS INFLUENCING VOTER TURNOUT IN NIGERIA’S FOURTH REPUBLIC (2015-2023)

Abstract

Despite various political situations in Nigerian democracy marked by various political contexts and a wide range of strategies to contest the results, voter turnout in Nigerian presidential elections has declined. This study aimed to investigate the influence of socio- economic factors on voter turnout in Nigeria’s 2015, 2019, and 2023 presidential elections. Using secondary data, the study employed descriptive statistics (maximum, minimum, mean, and standard deviation) and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis with the statistical package for the social sciences (SPSS) environment to describe and evaluate the impact of these factors on voter turnout, respectively. ESRI ArcGIS 10.8 was also used to examine the geographical distribution of voter turnout. The findings revealed a significant decrease in the average voter turnout of 46.72% in 2015, 35.63% in 2019, and 27.06% in the 2023 presidential elections. Notably, states with higher voter turnout rates were often aligned with the ruling party's geopolitical zones, which shifted over the three election cycles. Findings indicate that socio-economic factors did not significantly affect voter turnout in the 2015 and 2023 presidential elections. Additionally, only the percentage of educated women negatively influenced voter turnout in the 2019 presidential election. Based on these findings, the paper recommends that the federal, state and local governments should further strengthen the implementation of measures to reduce poverty and improve socio-economic conditions so that citizens can participate more actively in elections.