Modeling Nigerian Electricity Generation and Consumption Pattern
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Date
2015-03-02
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Publisher
Journal of Science, Technology and Mathematics Education (JOSTMED), Federal University of Technology, Minna
Abstract
This study examined annual amount of electricity generated and consumed in Nigeria for the period spanning 1970 to 2012. The Box-Jenkins modeling approach was employed after the series were transformed to ensure stationarity using the first differencing method. The empirical results showed that ARIMA (1, 1, 0) and ARIMA (0, 1, 1) models fitted the electricity generation and consumption datasets adequately. The whiteness of the residuals from the models was verified using Ljung-Box methodology. The projections for both electricity generation and consumption for five years ahead were made with 80% and 95% confidence limits.
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Keywords
Electricity generation, electricity consumption, Box-Jenkins modeling, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Ljung-Box method, confidence limits