AN ANALYSIS OF SPATIO-TEMPORAL TRENDS OF ROAD TRAFFIC CRASHES ACROSS NIGERIA-2023

Abstract

This study investigated the spatiotemporal patterns of road traffic crashes (RTCs) across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Abuja in 2023, using quarterly data sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics. Descriptive statistics in IBM SPSS Statistics 27 were used to examine the extent of RTCs cases, casualty levels, and causative factors while the Global Moran’s 𝐼 statistic in ArcGIS 10.8.2 environment was employed to test for their pattern of spatial clustering. The findings showed that the second quarter recorded the highest mean total cases at 80.19, followed by a notable decline in the third quarter, and an increase to 73.43 in the fourth quarter. Findings also revealed that fourth quarter recorded the highest mean total casualties at 282.14, while the third quarter showed the lowest mean total casualties at 187.81. Findings revealed that speed limit violations and brake failure were identified as the most important causative factors, while poor weather was the least frequent. Findings further revealed that the spatial distribution of RTC cases and casualty levels are concentrated in Kaduna, Ogun, FCT, Bauchi, and Niger while Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Rivers, and Abia recorded the lowest, reflecting regional disparities in crash incidence and severity. Findings also revealed a statistically significant spatial clustering of cases and casualty levels of RTCs. It was therefore recommended that high-risk states should be provided with sustained attention and tailored solutions of well-designed localized road safety programmes to reduce RTC cases and casualties.