THE IMPACT OF AGRO-CLIMATIC VARIABLES ON WHEAT YIELD IN SAVANNAH ECOLOGICAL ZONE OF NIGERIA
| dc.contributor.author | AKPAN, Godwin Peter | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-10-12T12:00:55Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2026-10-12T12:00:55Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2024 | |
| dc.description.abstract | Climate constitutes the major determinant of crop production globally. Although climate and weather variables influence human activities and environmental resources sustainability, its variability causes pronounced seasonality in rainfall and threatens food security such as wheat production. This study aimed at examining the impact of selected agro-climatic variables on wheat yield in savannah ecological zone of Nigeria. The objectives were to: (i) examine the pattern of climate parameters in the study area from 2011 to 2020; (ii) assess the relationship between agro-climatic variables and wheat yield; (iii) assess the reliability of rainfall onset and cessation, rain days and their implications for wheat growth; (iv) determine the climatic suitability level for wheat crop; (v) predict future climatic suitability level for wheat growth; and (vi) identify the most biophysically suitable zone(s) for wheat growth in the study area. Six climatic variables, namely rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature, sunshine hour, relative humidity, evaporation and wheat yield data were obtained for 10 years in three savannah ecological zones (Derived Guinea, Guinea and Sudan/Sahel). Climatic data were collected from the record of Nigeria Meteorological Agency, Abuja while wheat yield data were obtained from Lake Chad Research Institute, Borno State. Data obtained were analysed using descriptive statistics such as frequency, percentages; and inferential statistics such as Pearson Product Moment correlation, Multiple Regression analysis and Global Agro Ecological Zone (GAEZ) model. The findings of the study were that: rainfall and evaporation displayed increasing trends in the three zones (0.34, 0.36, 0.62 and 0.13, 0.16, 0.06, respectively). Conversely, minimum temperature, sunshine, and wheat yield displayed decreasing trends across all zones (0.48, 0.22, 0.009; 0.69, 0.13, 0.0002; and 0.018, 0.011, 0.53, respectively). Other variables in the savannah zone exhibited fluctuating pattern; correlation coefficient (r) of wheat yield with each of maximum temperature (r = 0.10), evaporation (r = 0.02) and sunshine (r = 0.82). Only Sunshine was statistically significant. Similarly, with rainfall (r = -0.50), minimum temperature (r = -0.28) and relative humidity (r = -0.81) which showed negative correlation, rainfall and relative humidity were statistically significant. Coefficient of determination R2 revealed that 79.5% variance in wheat yield was explained by the six explanatory variables; wheat production in Guinea and Sudan/Sahel Savannah is negatively impacted by low probability of rainfall reliability (Interdiurnal Variability Index < 70%). climate suitability for wheat growth is high in guinea savannah zone (> 63%) while Sudan/Sahel and derived guinea savannah indicated good suitability (> 50%) and marginal suitability (> 0%) respectively; The result of GAEZ model predicted declining climate suitability level for wheat growth in baseline period of 2041 to 2070; and Guinea Savannah was identified as the most suitable region (42.65%) for wheat growth. The study concluded that agro-climatic variables have significant impact on wheat yield. The study therefore, recommended that wheat belt be extended to guinea savannah. Climate-resilient wheat varieties should be developed while irrigation system be made available to wheat farmers in the guinea savannah eco-zone. | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://uilspace.unilorin.edu.ng/handle/123456789/19029 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.publisher | University Of Ilorin | |
| dc.subject | Wheat | |
| dc.subject | Savannah | |
| dc.subject | Yield | |
| dc.subject | Variables | |
| dc.subject | Zone | |
| dc.title | THE IMPACT OF AGRO-CLIMATIC VARIABLES ON WHEAT YIELD IN SAVANNAH ECOLOGICAL ZONE OF NIGERIA | |
| dc.type | Thesis |