Exploring the Relationship Between Socio-Economic Factors and The Spatial Distribution of Crime in Nigeria

Abstract

Crime poses a major threat to human survival, causing physical harm, property loss, and increased feelings of vulnerability and insecurity among victims. This study investigates the spatial distribution of crime across Nigeria and examines the influence of socioeconomic characteristics on crime rates. Using data from the National Bureau of Statistics (2017, 2018, and 2020), Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) linear regression was conducted within the ArcGIS 10.5 environment to assess the effects of socioeconomic variables across different states on crime rates.

The findings revealed that Lagos and Abia states recorded the highest rates of crimes against persons, at 247.12 and 148.76 per 100,000 persons, respectively. In contrast, Kebbi, Anambra, Bauchi, Kogi, Zamfara, Kaduna, Jigawa, Rivers, Osun, Benue, and Katsina recorded considerably lower rates, ranging from 1.94 to 7.43 per 100,000 persons. Property-related offences were highest in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) and Lagos State, with rates ranging from 91.72 to 211.91 per 100,000 persons, while the lowest rates were recorded in Kebbi, Kogi, Bauchi, Jigawa, and Zamfara states. Lagos State also recorded the highest rate of offences against lawful authority, at 55.49 per 100,000 persons.

Furthermore, the findings revealed a significant correlation between population density, educational index, and the rates of crimes against persons and property. Notably, the model for offences against lawful authority demonstrated the best performance, with the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value of 225.32 and the highest adjusted R-squared value of 0.79.

To mitigate crime, the study recommends that the Federal Government expand socioeconomic activities and public services while increasing the deployment of security personnel in states experiencing rising population density.